BY
FOLKERT HESSE
The draw is out and with Nadal seeded at No. 2 there is not much doubt that he will meet Federer in the finals, even though both have some tricky match-ups on their way to the final weekend.
Especially Nadal might have two tough matches before a potential final with “Fed”. But after a very convincing clay court season from Nadal, I don’t have many worries that he will jump over those two hurdles. But those jumps might cost him a lot of energy and might open the door for Roger, who has a little easier draw.
So, since everybody expects Federer and Nadal at least among the last 4 players, who will be the other two players, who are most likely to join them in the semi-finals?
In Federers half of the draw, the top seeded players to meet him in the semi final are Murray and Tsonga. Both did not have a great clay court season this year and might not even get to the semi-final at all.
But there are some other dangerous players who are more confident on clay and had some good results this year already.
First of all it’s Mikhail Youzhny who won a tournament on clay this year already and climbed up the rankings lately. Now he is seeded at 11 and might be the big surprise in the semi finals.
The other hot players are Berdych, Baghdatis, Isner and De Bakker.
Berdych did not play well on clay this year but had a great tournament in Miami on hard court. If the conditions are hot and dry for the next 10 days he might get through, even though he has to beat Isner, and Baghdatis or Murray to reach the quarter final already.
Tsonga will face De Bakker in the 3rd round and he lost to him this year on clay already. Youzhnys draw is much easier. He will not waste too much energy before he faces Tsonga or De Bakker. But all these players are very unpredictable. Especially Tsonga will face a lot of pressure infront of his home crowd.
If I had to pick a player in this part of the draw, it would be Youzhny. All the other players rely too much on good weather conditions (Berdych, Murray, Isner, Tsonga).
But all these players won’t give Roger much trouble in the semi final.
And before the semi final “Fed” might face Soderling or Cilic in the quarters. Also not much trouble for him, I think.
In Nadals part of the draw, his potential semi final opponents are Roddick, Djokovic, Ferrer and Ferrero. And besides these players are not many in this section of the draw, who have the potential for a surprise up-set or have made a splash in this years clay court season yet.
But Ferrer is probably the best clay court player behind Nadal and Federer this season. Ferrer would be a big challenge for Nadal and this match might go the full distance of five sets and cost Nadal a lot of Energy before the potential final with Roger.
But before Nadal gets to the semi final he has to beat Verdasco in the quarters first, which will not be much easier than the semi final match up with Ferrrer. And I see another tricky match for him in the round of the last 16 with Thomaz Bellucci from Brazil. A lefty and a great clay court player, who has won on this surface this year already. Nadal faced him at the French in 2008 already, but now Bellucci is a much different player and way more dangerous for Rafa.
All in all Rafa faces more challenges on his way to a potential final with Roger and it will be crucial for him to save as much energy as possible.
Here are my picks for the quarters and the semis:
Quarterfinals:
Federer – Soderling: Federer in 3
Muray – Youzhny: Youzny in 5
Ferrer – Djokovic: Ferrer in 4
Nadal – Verdasco: Nadal in 4
Semifinals:
Federer – Youzhny: Federer in 4
Nadal – Ferrer: Nadal in 5
Check out my final prediction next time…
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