Federer in trouble?!?

BY

FOLKERT HESSE

Is Roger Federer still on track to get in shape for the French Open or is he running out of time to find his form to put himself in position to win the Grand Slam this year?

He did not play well in Indian Wells and Miami and then decided to skip the Monte Carlo 1000 event (like many other top ten players…) and get some more practice in before the long stretch of tournaments until Wimbledon.

But now he lost his first round match in Rome against Ernst Gulbis and he has only the tournaments in Estoril and Madrid left to get in shape and more importantly gain some confidence for his title defense at Roland Garros.

His match against Gulbis was really shaky and he played with not much confidence. He also did not look really fit to me. The way he was sliding and running when he had to play defense, showed that he does not have top fitness yet. He lost his balance many times and that is very unusual for a Roger Federer. So, I see that there is a lot more work to be done on the practice courts, before he will be able to defend his title in Paris.

But I still don’t think that Federer fans should worry too much, because it has been like this many times before, no matter what Fed tells us in his press conferences.

He just does not focus too much on the events besides the Grand Slams. He is just trying to pace himself for the big events, and history showed us that he is a master at doing exactly this. He knows exactly how much he has to do to get where he wants and I am certain that he will be in top shape when the French open start.

I think he will at least reach the final in Estoril and then tries to defend his title in Madrid. Then he has one week rest before the French, which he will use for a last training tune up to find his form.

If he can beat a Rafa Nadal in Paris is still doubtful for me, because Rafa might gain so much confidence by the start of the French that he will be very hard to beat, even though he might be a little more tired than Roger.

F. HESSE

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ATP-1000 Rome Preview

BY


FOLKERT HESSE


Today I want to take a look at the draw for the 2^nd ATP 1000 clay-court tournament of the season.

The first Masters series event was won by Rafa Nadal, but 5 of the top 10 players were not in the draw because of different reasons. Federer felt that the tournament comes to early for him in his preparation for the French and some other big names were injured (Del Potro, Davydenko, Soderling) or did not feel like playing on clay at all (Roddick).

But now at least Federer is ready to make his start on clay for the 2010 season and if both win, he will meet Nadal in the semis’ already.

But besides this interesting semi-final match up, there are some other very exciting possibilities in the draw. First of all Federer might face Baghdatis (if Marcos beats Gulbis for a 5^th time in a row…) in his opener and he can take revenge for his loss in Indian Wells. In the Quarters Roger might face Cilic, who was not as convincing on clay yet, as at the Australian Open in the beginning of the year. But it will be a good indication for Cilic’s potential to reach the top 5 some day, and a tough test for Federer. But Cilic will also have to beat a tough clay-court player like Almagro to get to the quarters.

Nadals section of the draw is also very interesting, since his opener will be against Kohlschreiber, then maybe Montanes and in the quarters either red hot Berdych, who like to play against Nadal, especially in his current form. Or a rematch of last years’ French Open disaster, with Robin Soderling, who just proved that his clay-court abilities were no fluke, when he reached the final in Barcelona. So, a tough draw section for Nadal, and he will be happy that he made a wise decision and did not play in Barcelona. He will be rested for these matches and he needs to, if he wants to be still fresh, when he plays Federer in the semi-final.

The bottom half of the draw might see a quarterfinal between Novak Djokovic, who is seeded No. 2 and Barcelona winner Fernando Verdasco. But Verdasco played the final in Monte Carlo already and I don’t think his legs are still fresh enough to make another splash in Rome, even though he has a pretty good draw, with only Youzhny in his way. But so does Novak and I see him winning against Verdasco this time.

In the other section there will be a rematch between De Bakker and Tsonga in the second round and De Bakker has to prove if his great performance in Barcelona was not just a one-hit-wonder. Tsonga will be eager to take revenge and it will be an exciting match for sure. Murray runs into Ferrer again and has to prove that he is one of the contenders for the French Open. I doubt it and see Ferrer winning against him in the round of 16. Even though he also played 2 events already, I still see him with enough left in the tank to reach the semi-final, where he will face Djokovic.

So, here is my prediction:

It’s Nadal over Federer and Ferrer over Djokovic. So, another Spanish winner in the 3 big clay-court event of the year. Nadal will take the title, because the other Spanish players just have too much respect for Nadal to beat him in a final.

This win will give Nadal even more confidence and make him the clear favorite for the French Open, even if Federer should win in Madrid again like last year.

Let’s see if I am right… ;)

F. HESSE

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ATP 1000 BARCELONA ANALYSIS

BY

FOLKERT HESSE

The first two clay court tournaments are finished and as I expected the winners carry a Spanish passport. First it was a dominant Nadal who lost only 14 games on his way to a 6^th straight title in Monte Carlo. And now it is Fernando Verdasco, the finalist in Monaco, who took the title in Barcelona.

Even though some of the big names (Federer, Del Potro, Davydenko, Roddick) did not play in these two tournaments, the first two clay court tournaments gave us a good indication, who will be among the contenders at the French Open this year. I see 4 names that are very likely to go deep into the draw at Roland Garros. First of al it is Nadal, who gained confidence over the last tournaments and has to be considered a clear favorite for the French Open. Then it is Fernando Verdasco, who reached two finals on clay and won one of them. He might be ready for a big win against a top 4 player at the French. And then it is David Ferrer, who always fights like a warrior on clay and deserves to reach a semi-final at the French. Nr. 4 is Robin Soderling, who does not have the typical clay-court game (and is the only one without a Spanish passport…), but proved last year already that he can dominate players with his hard an flat ground-strokes, even on the clay-courts at Roland Garros.

But there is another new name, who made a strong impression at Barcelona. Thiemo De Bakker, from the Netherlands might be the new kid on the block in this year’s clay-court season. He beat Tsonga in Barcelona and will improve his ranking a lot with his semi-final appearance in Barcelona. Let’s see if he can keep his momentum in Rome.

But it will be even more interesting to see if Federer can find his form in Rome. He will run into Nadal in the semi finals already and if he and Nadal really get there, we will see how good Nadals win in Monte Carlo really was. And if Roger is able to get back into shape by the push of a button.

F. HESSE

HESSE TENNIS TRAINING

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Folkert Hesse Tennis

Monte Carlo Preview

BY


FOLKERT HESSE




The clay court season kicks off in Monte Carlo this week and will give a first indication who will be among the contenders for the French Open title this year.

Even though 5 of the top 10 players (Federer needs more rest, Davydenko out with broken wrist, Del Potro also wrist injury and Roddick and Soderling because of ‘ clay allergy…’) are not in the field we will see exciting ATP clay-court tennis.

Djokovic seeded No. 1 and Nadal at 2 are the defending finalists, with Nadal trying to get his 6^th consecutive title in Monaco. Murray and Cilic are the othe 2 players who are in the top 4 seedings and should go to the semis.

So, with Federer, Del Potro, Davydenko and Soderling there are 4 players not in the draw who are capable of giving Nadal a hard time on clay. A great opportunity for him to get a good start into his clay-court season and finally winning an ATP-title again after nearly one year of empty hands.

But even with these players out of the draw, there is plenty of competition for Rafa. On his way to a potential final he has to eliminate a few Spanish clay court specialist and maybe Andy Murray in the semi-final. Ferreo, Ferrer, Almagro And Monaco are all in his section of the draw. If he gets through these players he will gain a lot of confidence, but also lose a lot of energy, before he probably faces Verdasco or Djokovic in the final.

In the top half of the draw Djokovic has his hands full as well and will have to battle his way through Wawrinka, Nalbandian or Robredo, before he meets Verdasco, Cilic or maybe red hot Berdych in the semi-final.

If Verdasco is completely recovered from his back injury, I see him as the favorite to reach the semis, and if he gets there he will go through to the final as well.

But it will be very interesting how Berdych will handle he recent success in Miami, where he beat Federer and only lost in the final to Roddick. Was it just another flash of his great talent or was it a final break-through. We will know after this tournament.

Here is my prediction:

Nadal wins in the semis against Ferrer and Djokovic loses against Verdasco. In the final Nadal is too strong for Verdasco again and Nadal will get a record 6^th consecutive title at Monte Carlo.

It will give him a lot of confidence back, but it won’t be an indication that he will win the French as well. I still see Federer winning in Roland Garros and getting his first Grand Slam this year. Rafa’s career is slowly going down due to his physical way of playning, his injuries and his tournament planning, but for sure this title will give him a push for the next tournaments.

Let’s see if I am right

F. HESSE

HESSE TENNIS TRAINING

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Folkert Hesse Tennis